Errol Spence Jr. returns from a long layoff to face Yordenis Ugas in a unification fight Saturday night at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (Showtime PPV, 9 p.m. ET).
Spence was supposed to face Manny Pacquiao last year, but suffered a left eye injury a few days before and had surgery. Ugas fought Pacquiao instead and scored a big upset in a decision win.
This fight is an opportunity for Spence to show why fight fans call him the best welterweight in boxing. If he beats Ugas, he will cement that spot because he will have three major titles. Terence Crawford has the other.
Ugas has confidence on his side after defeating Pacquiao, but can he apply the same pressure against a faster and younger Spence? Or can Spence make Ugas play defense and land his combinations?
Timothy Bradley Jr. breaks down the matchup and explains what the fighters need to do to win.
Spence is technically sound, but Ugas can win positional battle
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Mike Coppinger explains the chances of Errol Spence Jr. fighting Terence “Bud” Crawford in the future.
Spence is basic but highly efficient. He has a system and an order in his breakdown process. His excellent technique conserves energy, and tactically, he is sound. Physically, he is robust, durable and resilient.
And when I say basic, that doesn’t mean bad. It means Spence is simply effective. Terence Crawford, as an example, can do remarkable things outside of normal technique in the way he fights. Vasiliy Lomachenko is another dynamic fighter with many weapons in his arsenal.
After watching film of Spence, it looks to me that he can lose the position battle to Ugas. Ugas is a master of being at the right range and attacking at the right time. That’s why he was so successful against Pacquiao, who throws a lot of punches and hits extremely hard. But Ugas is used to fighting southpaws — he comes from that Cuban school and understands defense and the angles he needs to take to compete against a southpaw, and take away his opponent’s best weapon. Pacquiao has one of the most dynamic left hands in boxing and Ugas was able to neutralize that left hand and take it away from him. In that fight, Ugas was always in position to counterattack.
He needs to be the same fighter against Spence. Ugas needs to be the same defensive-minded fighter who made Pacquiao pay every time he made a mistake. Ugas is an excellent counter puncher and a better body puncher than Spence. On the inside, Spence is deadly to the body, but as far as setting up his counter and going to the body, I think Ugas is a better body puncher, believe it or not.
In transition, Ugas is also a better fighter than Spence, because he can punch, play defense and punch again without breaks. Meanwhile, Spence will start things with the jab, then when punches come back at him, he would default to the high guard and block shots, but he won’t punch until his opposition has finished punching. Then he will punch again. He won’t look for opportunities to punch in between his opponent’s shots. That’s a rarity for a fighter like Spence. He’s more of a get in and get out fighter, and he neutralizes a lot of guys’ offense with his jab, constantly landing it. But what happens when he’s facing someone who also has as good a jab and can regulate distance and win the positional battle — as in, keeping the lead foot on the outside? That’s what you need to control, the lead foot outside when you fight a southpaw, especially Spence, because that’s when Spence is vulnerable, when his lead foot is on the inside.
You can go back and watch fights versus Kell Brook, Danny Garcia and Shawn Porter, who all had good moments against Spence. When Spence wasn’t in the right position, he got hit with right hands, got hit to the body and got hit with a variety of punches when he didn’t have his lead foot where it should be.
Ugas can control that position and keep his lead foot outside. Ugas will also move right and avoid Spence’s left hand, as he did against Pacquiao. When Pacquiao shoots his left hand, Ugas would take a 45-degree angle, step back and counter. He can do the same against Spence because Spence is basic with his offense. Yes, he has excellent fundamentals and technique, but I don’t see Ugas having problems figuring out Spence’s offense and how he wants to operate.
Spence has about six jab variations, but his combinations are repetitive: Single jab, jab-jab-right hand. Most of the time, when Spence is going to attack, is off the double jab. Full jab, half jab, big punch behind. I watched film of Spence versus Kell Brook, when he first got on the big scene and won his world title, and I said, ‘Where is the right hook?’ He doesn’t have one. And some will say, ‘What do you mean he doesn’t have a right hook, that’s the shot he was able to hit Porter with.’ But that was with a combination. He will throw that right hook only with a combination. But he never sets up guys, trap them and catch them coming in with the counter. Spence is not a back-foot counter kind of guy, but Ugas is.
Ugas needs to be more aggressive, just like he was against Pacquiao in the latter part of the fight. This is the perfect time for Ugas to do the same thing to Spence — catch him by surprise. And I can see Spence, later in this fight, having to go to a place he’s never been before in his entire career and asking himself questions, ‘Is this still what I want to do?’ Because Ugas can take him there.
Ugas needs a similar performance like the one he showed against Pacquiao, and Spence needs to be that Spence before his car crash.
Spence’s fundamentals and technique are second to none
I mention that Spence is basic, but that’s not bad. Spence lives by the fundamentals and technique of his craft. He simplifies things and uses the principles of boxing very well, like his jab and how to use it to set up his other punches.
Spence is a fighter who puts pressure moving forward with his jab, as he’s constantly forcing his opponents to question themselves. Even when he’s going backward, when he takes that reverse step, he makes you miss, clears things and gets his hands up. And when you stop punching, now he’s coming forward. He burns you mentally and physically by going to the body, making him very dangerous. He does all that so well.
If I’m training Ugas, I also tell him to go to the body. Right hands, left hook to the body. Every time he feels Spence’s foot is on the inside at midrange, let his hands go, let his combinations go, to the body and head. And when he let those hands go, he better let them go because Spence is not going to counter. Ugas should keep his distance while flurrying because Spence will play defense and try to block those shots. But when he stops, Ugas needs to go back to defense because Spence will come back rapidly and then be ready to counter again.
Ugas must understand that the big power shots are coming any time he feels the double jab coming. So, time that double jab, get your lead foot outside and when the double jab comes, be prepared to let your right hand go because he’s coming with some power.
Game plans for Spence Jr. and Ugas
How Spence wins: Spence needs to be the hunter. He needs to come forward and be the aggressor. Spence has better technique than Ugas, and he’s a prolific body puncher. He needs to go to the body, break down Ugas, land his jab and keep Ugas defensive-minded. Spence can win on the scorecards if Ugas is defensive and not attacking. You don’t want an offensive Ugas, a guy that can punch at you and continue counterpunching. You want an opponent that will allow you to dictate the pace and allow you to do what you want to do inside the ring to dominate him. But Spence has to be who he was before the accident, the surgery and the layoff.
How Ugas wins: Ugas is a great defensive fighter, but he’s not going to win rounds that way. He can’t be the Ugas that fought and lost to Porter. We need the Ugas that fought and beat Pacquiao. Ugas cannot be satisfied with just competing, he needs to have the mentality to dominate the fight.
This refreshed, vibrant and rejuvenated Ugas has that mentality. If Ugas wins this fight, he’ll need to be perfect.
Bradley’s pick: I’m picking Spence to win. If Spence can use his power and volume punching to make Ugas defensive-minded, he will beat him. Spence needs to throw combinations. Not one shot, not two shots, because that will give Ugas a chance to counter those shots. If he throws three or four crisp shots with technique, he will be able to neutralize much of Ugas’ offense. Spence wins this fight by stepping up to him, high offense, a lot of volume, especially to the body, catch and shoot. Keep Ugas, who has the shorter legs, off balance by constantly punching.
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In his fight against Pacquiao, Ugas was able to land the harder and more impactful punches, which is why he got the win. If he plans on beating Spence, he will have to force Spence to make mistakes and get reckless. Unfortunately for Ugas, that is the exact opposite way Spence fights.
Spence will be the bigger and faster fighter, and he will be a stylistic nightmare for Ugas. Look for Spence to control the distance and stay behind his jab, not allowing Ugas to counter anything. Unless Ugas lands something big, I see Spence working the body throughout the 12 rounds and getting the unanimous decision win.
Prediction: Spence by decision.