Big time boxing has been back in some form since last year but a stadium event with the potential to challenge the indoor boxing attendance record in the States is another progression of the return.
There are a handful of fighters who have proven they can genuinely, consistently put butts in seats. Saul Alvarez is one of them and he’s in the ring for the third time since December on Saturday (DAZN, 8 PM EST). It’s a good thing for one of the top draws in boxing to pick up the activity level and he’s targeted super middleweight for an attempted clean out.
Alvarez has two belts already. A third is attainable this weekend and opponent Billy Joe Saunders has seemed to work extra hard to get under Alvarez’s skin.
Will it be to any avail?
Let’s get into it.
Stats and Stakes
Saul Alvarez
Age: 30
Titles: Ring/WBC/WBA Super Middleweight (2020-Present, 1 Defense)
Previous Titles: WBC Super Welterweight (2011-13, 6 Defenses); Ring Jr. Middleweight (2013); WBC Middleweight (2015-16, 1 Defense); TBRB Middleweight (2015-17); WBO Jr. Middleweight (2016-17); Ring World Middleweight (2015-18, 2 Defenses); IBF Middleweight (2019); Lineal World Middleweight (2015-20, 4 Defenses); TBRB/Ring/WBC/WBA Middleweight (2018-Present, 1 Defense)
Height: 5’8
Weight: 167 ½ lbs.
Stance: Orthodox
Hails from: Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico
Record: 55-1-2, 37 KO
Press Rankings: #1 (TBRB, ESPN, Boxing News, BoxRec),
Record in Major Title Fights: 15-1-1, 8 KO (16-1-1, 9 KO including WBA sub-title fights)
Last Five Opponents: 144-8-1 (.967)
Notable Outcomes, TBRB and/or Ring Rated Foes: Ryan Rhodes TKO12; Josesito Lopez TKO5; Austin Trout UD12; Floyd Mayweather Jr. L12; Erislandy Lara SD12; Miguel Cotto UD12; Amir Khan KO6; Liam Smith KO9; Gennady Golovkin D12, MD12; Rocky Fielding TKO3; Daniel Jacobs UD12; Sergey Kovalev KO11; Callum Smith UD12
Additional Current/Former Titlists Faced: Miguel Vazquez SD4, UD10; Carlos Baldomir KO6; Lovemore N’Dou UD12; Kermit Cintron TKO5; Shane Mosley UD12; Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. UD12
Vs.
Billy Joe Saunders
Age: 31
Title: WBO Super Middleweight (2019-20, 2 Defenses)
Previous Titles: WBO Middleweight (2015-18, 3 Defenses)
Height: 5’11
Weight: 167 ¾ lbs.
Stance: Southpaw
Hails from: Hatfield, Hertfordshire, United Kingdom
Record: 30-0, 14 KO
Press Rankings: #3 (Boxing News, BoxRec), #4 (Ring), #5 (ESPN), #6 (TBRB)
Record in Major Title Fights: 7-0, 1 KO
Last Five Opponents: 164-24-4 (.865)
Notable Outcomes, TBRB and/or Ring Rated Foes: Andy Lee MD12; David Lemieux UD12
Additional Current/Former Titlists Faced: None
The Case for Alvarez: It’s hard to find something Saunders does better than Alvarez athletically. Alvarez’s hands appear quicker, Alvarez’s upper body and head movement is as good as there is, Alvarez hits a hell of a lot harder, and Alvarez is vastly more experienced as a pro with a much wider variety of opposition. If Alvarez can establish an attack to the body, he is likely to out counter a fighter who will need to counter to win. If Alvarez maintains a steady attack and keeps his hands moving, the long game of breaking Saunders down could result in a stoppage.
The Case for Saunders: Alvarez has looked like he’s in a zone since the rematch with Golovkin but could some of that be the right choice in styles? Saunders might be able to test that. Saunders is a clever boxer with the ability to frustrate. To his credit, the southpaw isn’t just defensively clever. Saunders can put together good combinations and has the ability to reflexively improvise in exchanges. If Saunders can stab away at Alvarez and move along, he has chances to expose the still sometimes heavy feet of Alvarez in a way no one has since Erislandy Lara. Saunders hasn’t appeared overly focused since a big win over David Lemieux but his trip to the scale Friday looked like a man who put in the work.
The Pick: While a professional for well over a decade, Saunders has never stepped anywhere near as far out of his competitive comfort zone as he will this weekend. Unimpressive since his win over Lemieux, both in and sometimes out of the ring, Saunders has to prove he belongs with the best in the sport. Despite belts in two weight classes, he’s only scratched at that proof so far.
And yet this one is interesting in some ways because it’s different stylistically from other recent Alvarez fights. Saunders clearly has some skill and can be a hard target. If he’s better than he’s looked since Lemieux, Saunders might have the hand speed, defensive foundation, and footwork to chase the upset. Watching tape of both fighter’s recent form makes it hard to see that as a real possibility.
There’s just no compelling reason to pick against Alvarez in this one. Saunders might last the route but Alvarez will be looking for super middleweight belt number four after the scores are read.
Rold Picks 2021: 25-3
Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, a member of the International Boxing Research Organization, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at [email protected]